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The last few years have seen Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal rule the roost in the ATP rankings, except for a brief period in 2009 when Andy Murray decided to end the duopoly and put himself at No. 2 ahead of Nadal. Federer finished 2009 at No.1 and Nadal at No.2 but for FedEx to actually defend his numero-uno status at the end 2010 it's going to be quite a monumental task.

Not that we are questioning Federer's ability to play with the next generation, but it's the manner in which he has accumulated his points in 2009 that might test his tenure at World No.1. Federer achieved brilliant results in all four majors of 2009, twice finishing as champion and twice as runner-up. This effectively means that he's in a situation where he would be continuously defending points rather than earning them. What makes matters worse for him is the fact that his main contenders did not do really well at the slams last year which means that they stand an excellent chance to gain more points than last year.

The opportunity for Federer though lies in the fact that he has not earned too many points in tournaments apart from the majors. So it will be interesting to see how he performs in the comparatively smaller tournaments to give a fillip to his points tally.

The Table below illustrates the performances of the top 4 players in Grand Slams in 2009.

Name	AO	FO	W	USO	Total
Roger Federer	1200	2000	2000	1200	6400
Rafael Nadal        ÂÂ	2000 ÂÂ	180   ÂÂ	0       ÂÂ	720    ÂÂ	2900  ÂÂ
Novak Djokovic	360	90	360	720	1530
Andy Murray	180	360	720	180	1440

Federer would need to defend 6400 points at the Grand Slams, quite an enormous task in itself. Though Roger has earned 800 more points after his demolition of Murray in the Australian Open final, he would have to extend his Slam run of semi-finals or better to 26 to ensure that he is in with a shot of finishing the year as the world no.1. That would be an achievement even for the great man himself, though ofcourse once again, not one that we feel is necessarily beyond him. Whereas, for the rest of the chasing pack, even reaching the finals of an event would see them getting more points than last year. Easier said than done though!

For Nadal, just playing in all the Slams with an injured knee would be an achievement in itself. Clay courts would probably not put too much strain on his knees but the question is whether his already injured knee can do all the hustling which won him 4 titles at Roland Garros. Traditionally Nadal accumulates most of his points during the clay court season. Last season saw him muster three tournament wins, but now defending the three ATP - 1000 championships is going to be a tad more difficult. For him to challenge Federer for the No. 1 spot, needs him to be 100% fit and that looks a little unlikely especially after the debacle of his Australian Open title defence.

So if it's not Nadal, who's it going to be to dethrone Fedex from his mantle? The answer - this is the year which could actually see Djokovic and Murray finally come out of the shadows of the Fed - Rafa era.

Considering the fact that they had a pretty ordinary Grand Slam record last year, it makes good sense to put your money on either of them walking away with the year ending No.1 status. In fact, Djokovic was just sniffing distance away from the No.1 rank this Australian Open, if only he had not lost to Tsonga, things might have been a lot tighter at the top.The big question is can he step up his performances at the majors. Last year Djokovic flattered to deceive and would have to make the most of the opportunities coming his way.

British No.1 Andy Murray may have lost the final to Federer but he too has a shot at the top slot and few would disagree that him winning a Grand Slam is just a matter of time. Murray has it in him to win tournaments on all surfaces, and it would not be too surprising should he go on a bid of a run while Federer and Nadal take breathers over the course of the year.

So on paper while all of the above looks a distinct possibility, the action of actually dethroning Federer from the helm requires one of the young contenders to stand up and actually win a Slam or two. One thing is for certain, it's going to be a mighty interesting year ahead, and to overlook Nadal, Djokovic or Murray would need to be at one's own peril.

New ATP Rankings (as on 1st Feb):

1. Roger Federer - 11350
2. Novak Djokovic - 8310
3. Andy Murray - 7800
4. Rafael Nadal - 7670
5. Juan Martin del Potro - 6400

File Photograph Copyright: Rob