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In 2007 it was Novak Djokovic, 2008 Andy Murray and this year in 2009 we see a reenactment of the familiar script of a first time slam finalist, Juan Martin Del Potro, take on the defending champion Roger Federer in what promises to be a battle to remember. On each of the previous occasions Roger Federer has triumphed in this scenario, and this time around things should also be a foregone conclusion if one looks purely at the rankings and their past records. A 5-time US Open champion, 15 slam wins, coming off the channel slam and a win at Cincinnati against a player he holds a 6-0 head-to-head record against. It should be easy. Only the most ardent, blinkered and mulish of Federer fans would allow themselves to be deluded by that thought. Having contended that life isn't going to resemble a Mediterranean cruise for the world no.1, let us then examine the strengths and weaknesses of the two opponents in the light of their recent form and match ups and glean what we can about the way the bout might pan out.

Let us first of all talk about the one thing that has wowed us all about Del Potro - the power. Standing at a towering 6'6", Del Potro has displayed an ability to hit the cover off the ball with impunity. Not many can leave as accomplished a retriever as Rafael Nadal look out of depth, but the manner of his demolition of the Spaniard, should leave the rest of the tennis playing world a little worried to say the least. Even more telling is the fact that he generates it without ever overdoing himself, and off both flanks and off that serve. On the fast DecoTurf that is the US Open court surface, the zip hurts, and is going to punch its fair share of holes in Federer's game. Can the great man find a counter to this? Hark back to the French Open semifinals a few months ago, even on the clay, the pace the big Argentine was generating off the ground was hurrying Federer as he hasn't been hurried before. Going toe-to-toe is certainly not the way out for the Swiss genius.

Del Potro a couple of years ago had a powder puff of a serve, surprising for a bloke who even then stood about 4 inches over the 6 feet mark. In the last year or so though, he has developed that serve into a weapon of destruction. Apart from the power, he serves regularly at over 130mph, his height gives the serve the lift and the prospect of exploring greater angles in the service box. Those who watched the semifinal would have been struck at how many serves, Nadal was returning above shoulder height. Nadal is an accomplished returner, as is Federer, but their preferred ploy of bunting the ball back into play and getting into rallies is not as potent an option as against most other big servers due to the afore mentioned competence that Del Potro has off the ground in the rally. The serve though is one area where Federer can stand his ground having himself developed a weapon that rears, kicks like a vicious serpent and is the most intelligently placed in the game today. Even so the reach of the long limbed, almost gorilla-like, Argentine will get a lot more serves into play with interest than many of Federer foes.

Given that we have a fair idea of what Del Potro will bring to the final, how would Federer attempt to counter this? Del Potro is a player who likes rhythm. As evinced in the Cilic match, once the Argentine gets into the rallies, he'll use his power and control to dominate by driving the ball from side to side further & further into the corner before either his power gives him a winner or draws an error. Federer cannot allow this situation to develop too often, especially on his own serve. Instead expect Federer to use his own forehand, arguably the greatest in the history of men's tennis to take the ball early and whip it in his own characteristic style to dominate the points. The Nadal semi-final against Del Potro also gives some further ideas. Due to the heavy top spin inherent in Nadal's strokes, the ball tends to fall short, right into Del Potro's hitting zone; Federer's are not the same, they are far flatter and although they have a healthy margin of error will be much deeper, and go through the court much more, which in turn means that Del Potro will have less time and have a far lower ball to hit. Right out of the box, one aspect of Nadal's play showed that he had come out with a gameplan - the number of sliced backhands he hit. Federer's slices are better, they stay lower, zip through more and should therefore trouble Del Potro more. Federer also will have to hit the short-angles that have come to be his trademark, drawing Del Potro out of his hitting zone, and creating space for his own finishing shot. He's done all this in past matches against the big man, but the French Open semi is probably the only relevant indicator at this stage, and there implementing this gameplan proved to be among the toughest exercises for Federer in his illustrious career.

But frankly, the most crucial aspect of this match, probably the one that decides the result will be the pressure of playing in a final and specifically how Del Potro handles it. Federer has been in this position many times, he clearly enjoys it, even more so now that the pressure of ‘15' and the career Slam is off. For Del Potro though, this is his first, and the pressure undeniable. But Del Potro in the last couple of weeks and indeed over a period of time has found a way to maintain a veneer of calm and composure in the face of the greatest adversity - the quarterfinal against a rampaging Cilic a case in point. Even in the match against Nadal he never let the occasion get to him. Or the 5 setter he lost to Roger at the French, mental fragility wasn't the reason for his loss. As my editor, keeps harping on, Del Potro's run this year is reminiscent of Safin 2000 and Sampras 1990. Keeping that in mind, the pressure will rest easy on the Argentine's broad shoulders.

In conclusion, I wouldn't be overly astonished at Juan Martin del Potro putting the finishing touch on his inexorable rise since Stuttgart last year by lifting the US Open trophy. But the US Open has been Roger Federer's backyard, the past 5 years, and he's found a way to maneouvre past anything that's been thrown his way. Bill Tilden's six in a row looms large in Federer's thoughts as another record he would dearly love to equal. If he does pull it off though, it will undoubtedly be only after he gets through his sternest examination yet, in his remarkable 5 year reign thus far.